Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Brent is back near $80 and West Texas Intermediate near $77, which means the Oil market has handed back almost the entire premium it built over nearly four months of open war with Iran.
The textbook calls the Canadian Dollar a petro-currency, which means that with a Middle East war keeping Crude Oil bid, the Loonie should be holding its own.
The Euro did something this week that ought to be impossible: it fell in the same fortnight the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023.
The Australian Dollar spent this week as a passenger in someone else's trade.
Gold is supposed to be the asset you want when the world looks dangerous, which makes this week's price action quietly remarkable.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) spent the back half of this week doing something most desks had written off six months ago: rallying on the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.
The week ahead will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors digest the first Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and look ahead to the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, global PMI releases, and central-bank commentary.
Silver (XAG/USD) price tumbles for the third consecutive trading day, down over 3.32% on Friday, courtesy of broad US Dollar (USD) strength and rising US Treasury yields, which have aimed higher since Wednesday amid the Fed's hawkish tilt.
The USD/CAD pair rises during the North American session, up 0.27% on Friday and over 1.34% for the week, with the pair remaining upward-biased and set to test higher prices seen last year. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.4175, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.4131.
AUD/USD trades little changed on Friday as hawkish policy signals from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offset each other, keeping the pair range-bound despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD).
Gold (XAU/USD) price edges lower by some 1.69% on Friday, poised to end with losses for the third consecutive week.At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,147, weighed by overall US Dollar strength sparked by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to keep interest rates higher for longer.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dives for the third consecutive day on Friday, down in the week by over 1.48%, after hitting two-month lows of 0.5722 against the Greenback. The NZD/USD pair trades at 0.5738, down 0.25% on the day.
The USD/JPY pair trades near 161.00 on Friday, easing slightly after reaching a two-year high of 161.81 on Thursday, and breaking a five-day winning streak for the US Dollar (USD).The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains fragile as pressure mounts over a possible new intervention by authorities to strengthen
The Swiss Franc is the weakest major into the weekly close, dragging USD/CHF to a fresh high for the year. The tidy explanation is a wartime safe-haven bid unwinding now that the US and Iran have struck a deal; the trouble is that the Franc was never much of a haven in this war.
USD/CHF extends gains on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly after rising to more than one-year highs. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) keep demand tilted toward the US Dollar over the Swiss Franc (CHF).
NZD/USD trades around 0.5740 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.28% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to benefit from expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance in the United States (US).
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground after nearing a three-month low on Friday at 1.3163, sponsored by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, but edges up 0.18% amid thin trading conditions due to a holiday in the US.
EUR/USD stages a rebound on Friday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) helps the Euro (EUR) stabilize after recent losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1470 after bouncing from a three-month low of 1.1417 touched earlier in the day.
The Crude Oil market has spent the week busily unwinding a war that has not actually been settled.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Friday that a planned meeting in Switzerland with US officials had been postponed, adding that preparations are already underway for a new meeting in the coming days, Reuters reported.
Nordea’s research suggests EUR/USD upside is constrained in coming months by interest rate differentials and relative growth. The European Central Bank is seen closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Federal Reserve, while Eurozone data remain softer than US figures.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Friday as traders assess the latest news about the US-Iran peace deal and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,150 after hitting a one-week low of $4,121 earlier in the day.
Nordea expects USD/JPY to remain high as wide US–Japan yield differentials persist and the Bank of Japan stays very accommodative. While some gradual BoJ normalization is anticipated, it is seen as too modest to materially weaken the Japanese Yen near term.
Deutsche Bank’s Galina Pozdnyakova, Jim Reid and Luke Templeman highlight that next week’s main macro focus will be global flash PMIs and several key inflation releases.
Nordea analysts expect the Dollar to stay supported in coming months as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance and US data remain firm. They argue that US growth and inflation dynamics justify higher yields versus peers, limiting Dollar downside.
USD/CAD trades on the front foot on Friday despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as weaker-than-expected Canadian Retail Sales data weighs on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4170, its highest level since April 2025.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $64.85 on Friday at the time of writing, down 1.31% on the day. The white metal remains under pressure for a third consecutive day as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy and developments in the Middle East.
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Andy Burnham’s by-election win paves his way to become UK Prime Minister, with betting markets expecting a transition by late summer. The absence of a political risk premium in Pound assets suggests investors see limited fiscal disruption.
Citing a senior US official on Friday, Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire at 4 p.m. local time on Friday.
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