Commerzbank strategists note July Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.0% year-on-year, below consensus, mainly due to softer retail fuel prices. While core CPI has been gradually rising, overall price pressures are described as manageable and below government forecasts.
The Euro (EUR) registers minimal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as traders and market participants prepare for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, which could set the path for the future of US monetary policy.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/CNH slipped after weak US payrolls, with the Renminbi (RMB) near its strongest levels in over three years.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to remain in a tight intraday band after Monday’s modest rebound, with the pair seen between 1.2785 and 1.2815.
Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision, as widely expected. Chia notes the RBA sees inflation returning to the midpoint of its 2–3% target only by late 2027.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the British Pound (GBP) is consolidating gains near the top of its one-month and multi-month ranges, with price action closely tied to fading downside risk reversals.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading little changed in the vicinity below the 100.00 price zone ahead of the United States (US) July Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected on Wednesday.
Commerzbank’s energy team notes fading hopes for a US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent toward USD 90 and gas oil to nearly USD 1,350 per ton. Drone attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya and tight diesel supply add to the risk premium.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades modestly higher on Tuesday after two-way price swings, as headlines from the Middle East keep energy markets volatile. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $82.13, up more than 7% so far this week.
Tuesday gives the Dollar Index a session with almost nothing in it.
UOB economist Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s 2Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, driven by AI-related strength in manufacturing and modern services.
Silver price reverses its course, drops some 2.70% on Tuesday, even though US Treasury yields and the Greenback remained steady, amid news that if the US does not comply with Iran’s demands, the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. The XAG/USD trades at $64.77, after hitting a daily high of $66.49.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades flat above 159.00 on Tuesday after several days of US Dollar (USD) strength following the intervention that briefly boosted the Yen. The pair has retraced most of its sharp intervention-driven decline, facing pressure from elevated Oil prices and a firm US Dollar (USD).
Gold (XAU/USD) price registers modest losses on Tuesday, driven by a firm US Dollar as traders await the release of crucial US inflation data and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The rise in energy prices is also capping the yellow metal´s advance.
The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee revealed in a video posted by Wired, that “The biggest problem facing our economy right now is not the collapse of industry and the collapse of jobs; it's that the prices have been rising too fast, we got an inflation problem and people hate inflation.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke the three-session coil that had pinned it beneath its record, traded up through 54,200, and has since surrendered the entire move.
USD/CHF trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Price action has stabilized above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following a sharp pullback from above 0.8200 in late July.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is steady, extending a tight consolidation around the mid-1.15s after the Dollar’s late-July Fed-driven decline.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day with a 0.03% decline.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday following the release of softer-than-expected US jobs data, while investors await US inflation data on Wednesday and UK GDP releases on Thursday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3508, nearly unchanged.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses USD/JPY ahead of the United States (US) July Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, highlighting how softer US inflation could weaken the Dollar and lower the odds of another break above USD/JPY160.
USD/CAD trades under pressure on Tuesday, staying on the back foot for a third straight day. However, the pair lacks follow-through selling as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights ongoing pressure on the Australian Dollar after the RBA removed one projected rate hike, keeping the cash rate at 4.35% and projecting the policy rate around 4.40% through 2028.
EUR/GBP is trading on the lower end of its weekly range near the 0.8540 price zone on Tuesday.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is supported by higher Oil prices and Friday’s strong Canadian jobs data versus weaker US labour figures.
Commerzbank's Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer expects EUR/USD to recover once the Iran conflict eases and to grind higher over the coming quarters.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad explains USD/JPY has retraced half of its post-intervention drop, with US–Japan rate spreads already narrowing in favor of the Japanese Yen (JPY).
AUD/USD trades moderately higher above the 0.7060 price region after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in a unanimous decision at the August monetary policy decision.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil retreats on Tuesday, trading around $80.40 at the time of writing, down 1.28% on the day. The US benchmark gives back its previous gains after Qatar reported progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold (XAU/USD) pauses its rally on Tuesday after hitting a two-month high of $4,435 earlier in Asian trading hours. Price action remains driven by movements in Oil prices and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook.
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