OCBC notes USDSGD is trading choppily in a subdued range, closely tracking moves in the USD, Oil and UST yields. The bank sees mild bullish momentum starting to fade and maintains a bias to sell rallies, with key support around 1.2720/60 and 1.2650/70 and resistance near 1.2840/50.
Silver (XAG/USD) remains range-bound on Friday as traders avoid aggressive positioning amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the white metal trades near $76.00 and is likely to close the week on a flat note.
Gold price edges lower during the day as the Greenback recovers some ground amid doubts that the US and Iran could reach a deal to end the conflict, and traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by the end of the year. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,518, down 0.50%.
ING economists Min Joo Kang and Lynn Song expect the Bank of Korea to leave policy rates unchanged this week but to adopt a more hawkish tone. They see updated dot plots pointing to one or two rate hikes within six months, alongside upgraded GDP and CPI forecasts.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th head of the Fed on Friday, the first chair to take the oath at the White House since Alan Greenspan in 1987, a venue choice that says plenty about how close this central bank now sits to the executive branch. The optics got stranger from there.
There is confident, and then there is Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ground out a fresh all-time high, up around a quarter of a percent, on a day that gave it nothing to celebrate.
Freshly-minted Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first public speech as head of the Fed on Friday, delivering his key talking points after being sworn in.
Speaking ahead of the swearing-in of new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, President Trump stated that he wants Warsh to be "independent", stating that the Fed will "make their own decisions".
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates on Friday, remaining confined within this week’s trading range as investors cautiously monitor ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran to reach a deal to end the war in the Middle East.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) has shifted from a top G10 performer to one of the weakest on a 5‑day view as markets reassess Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening prospects after softer labour data.
USD/JPY holds firm on Friday, remaining confined within this week’s trading range as traders refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets near the 160.00 handle following suspected intervention by Japanese authorities in late April.
The Euro (EUR) retreats by 0.14% during the North American session on Friday amid growing speculation that the US and Iran may reach a deal to end the conflict. The Greenback is recovering some ground, underpinned by Oil prices trimming some of its earlier losses.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as traders look past stronger Canadian Retail Sales figures and keep their attention on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan expect Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rebound in Q1 2026, projecting a 1.7% annualized expansion after a 0.6% contraction in Q4.
Scotiabank’s global FX strategy team highlights the Dollar is ending the week on the offensive, with modest gains against most G10 currencies as markets focus on US–Iran developments and the swearing-in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Deutsche Bank analysts expect Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) to show a slight acceleration, with core CPI ex fresh food seen at 1.6% YoY and core-core at 2.0%. Industrial production is forecast to rise 0.2% MoM.
TD Securities economists expect April core and headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to moderate to 0.26% and 0.43% month-on-month, translating to 3.3% and 3.8% year-on-year. They also see softer nominal and real personal spending.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that he does not expect to support a change in the policy rate in the near term, adding that the outcome will depend heavily on the length of the Iran conflict, per Reuters.
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that South American equities are being driven by commodity inflows, with energy holdings sharply above historical averages as investors use the region as a hedge against war-related supply shocks.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Teeuwe Mevissen reports that Eurozone growth indicators have deteriorated, with French and German PMIs signaling contraction and the German IFO near a five-year low.
United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that they would all love to see an agreement with Iran but added that they are "not there yet," per Reuters.
Commerzbank reports Copper has fallen about 5% from mid‑May highs, mainly on higher risk aversion from rising Oil prices. Yet China’s April Copper output dipped 4.5% month-on-month and mining news from Chile and Indonesia point to weaker supply growth.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/JPY to trade intraday between 158.80 and 159.25 after a brief pop to 159.34 failed to strengthen momentum.
EUR/GBP trades on the back foot on Friday and is set to end the week in negative territory, as the British Pound (GBP) outperforms most major peers despite weaker-than-expected UK Retail Sales data, while upbeat German economic data fails to provide meaningful support to the Euro (EUR).
Chris Turner at ING says EUR/CHF is effectively being driven by European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is seen keeping policy unchanged despite some tightening priced in. Softer Eurozone data could limit ECB hikes and pressure EUR/CHF below key support levels.
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revived monetary operations as the Rupee approached a record low near 97 per US Dollar (USD).
Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey notes that Kevin Warsh may initially avoid pushing for immediate rate cuts, instead laying out an analytical framework to justify resuming pre-war easing later in 2026.
Nordea's strategists Sara Midtgaard and Henrik Unell see scope for Euro (EUR) appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) as policy divergence grows.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, right below 1.1600 at the time of writing and nearing six-week lows, at 1.1584.
BNY’s Bob Savage says global equities are posting another weekly gain, led by technology, even as Oil and the Dollar rise and risk-off momentum in iFlow accelerates. Equity outflows have intensified overall, but flows into core government bonds remain resilient.
Exclusive insights, trading signals, and real-time updates for registered users.