European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that although they are not committed to any fixed interest rate path, they remain firm in their policy approach.
BNY’s Bob Savage argues that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank’s bias to tighten, driven by domestic and energy-related strength, is largely priced and may not extend Norwegian Krone (NOK) gains.
The GBP/JPY cross seems to have stabilized following good two-way price swings earlier this Monday and trades just below the 213.00 mark during the first half of the European session.
Investor morale in the Eurozone improved slightly in May, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index edging higher to -16.4 from -19.2 in April.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe Gold as consolidating after rebounding from 4510, with high Oil prices still complicating the inflation–Fed outlook.
USD/INR gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 95.00 during the Asian hours on Monday, following the release of India’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
NZD/USD holds ground after experiencing volatility, trading around 0.5900 during the European hours on Monday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) has recovered its daily losses and is extending its gains amid uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations.
Danske Research Team underlines that the US–Iran conflict and closure risks in the Strait of Hormuz are heavily impacting energy markets. US gasoline prices have surged nearly 50% since hostilities began, and higher Oil prices are pressuring global bond yields and inflation expectations.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday descent through the first half of the European session and drops to a fresh daily low, near the $4,580 region, back closer to Friday's swing low in the last hour.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has few sustainable tools to weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF) against major currencies such as the US Dollar (USD).
Silver may test support near the four-month low of $61.01.
According to the European Central Bank's (ECB) quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), inflation rate in the Eurozone is projected to average 2.7% in 2026 before softening to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.
Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area growth nearly stalled in 1Q, with 0.1% qoq GDP and weak confidence indicators. They argue downside risks to growth are rising even as headline inflation is set to climb further.
Crude prices appreciate again on Monday despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge to rescue Hormuz vessels. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel trades at $99.40 at the time of writing, about $3 up from the daily opening price of $96.46.
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Dollar’s April weakness to persist into May, as the USD’s earlier two-month rise unwinds.
BNY’s Bob Savage notes that April’s 10% S&P 500 surge, the strongest in 33 years, reversed a prior defensive rotation from big tech into Energy, Materials and Industrials and into cash.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the Oil market has stabilised after a volatile week driven by concerns over Persian Gulf disruptions and the expiry of the ICE Brent Jun-26 contract.
The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 4:
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that EUR/USD has nearly returned to pre-war levels as the Euro (EUR) proves resilient and the US Dollar (USD) retreats. Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike in June, but Nguyen doubts pricing for three hikes by year-end.
The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground near 1.3595 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on lower crude oil prices. The US and Canadian employment data for April will be the highlights later on Friday.
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that Japanese authorities likely intervened in FX markets as USD/JPY dropped from near 160 to below 157, with estimated operations of JPY5-6 trillion. He notes these efforts mirror past interventions in 2022 and 2024.
The US Dollar (USD) pares previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) ahead of the European session opening on Monday. The pair is trading at the 156.80 area at the time of writing after dropping about 150 pips in a matter of minutes during the Asian session, hitting session lows near 155.70.
UOB strategists note that Brent crude has just recorded its largest monthly percentage decline since December 2025, despite briefly spiking above USD 126/bbl on renewed Strait of Hormuz concerns.
Danske Research Team reports that equities ended last week higher, led by tech and growth, even as Iran-related risks and higher Oil prices weighed on sentiment. They note a return of negative correlation between equities and bonds, with yields rising alongside stocks.
The Unified Command of the Iranian armed forces warned on Monday the US Navy not to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz. It further stated that it will 'respond harshly’ to any threat at any level and in any part of Iran.
Commerzbank strategists note AUD/USD held at 0.7200 on Friday and gained modestly over the week as markets price further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. Overnight index swaps imply a high probability of a third consecutive 25 bp hike to 4.35% and additional tightening by year-end.
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength around 1.3600 during the early European session on Monday. Signals from the Bank of England (BoE) that suggest a potential shift toward higher interest rates later this year underpin the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).
EUR/JPY holds losses after paring its daily losses, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week.
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