The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovers some ground versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, gaining 0.5%, but it remains poised to end the week with a 3% loss as investors exit the 'carry trade' amid a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Mexico to its lowest level since 2015.
Gold prices dropped on Friday, with the yellow metal struggling to decisively break the $4,200 milestone. The precious metal is down nearly 1% as US Treasury yields edge higher following a less-than-stellar US employment report.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Fox Business that the labor market is steady and that “the inflation side of the Fed’s job is more important.”
NZD/USD advances on Friday and trades around 0.5610 at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits mainly from the decline in the US Dollar (USD), which comes under pressure following a significantly weaker-than-expected employment report.
US employers added 29K jobs in September against a forecast of 90K, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60K. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and hourly pay grew 3.0% over the year against a 3.2% forecast.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises by over 0.41% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the US Unemployment Rate rises amid a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3250 after bouncing off daily lows beneath 1.3200.
TD Securities' Macro Research’s FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating.
TD Securities analysts characterize the upcoming September FOMC minutes as largely outdated given subsequent employment and PCE data. The minutes are expected to show disagreement over how much further tightening is needed, but broad consensus that policy should remain more restrictive.
USD/JPY trades around 157.65 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.28% on the day. The pair briefly dropped to 156.95 following the release of the United States (US) employment report before erasing the entire move and returning to pre-release levels.
Royal Bank of Canada analysts review Canada’s September labour report, the first full dataset since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect. They estimate around 0.4% of Canada’s GDP and employment is tied to tariff-listed US demand.
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October.
ABN Amro’s Rogier Quaedvlieg notes September US labour market data came in weaker than expected, with payrolls at 29k versus consensus 90k and prior months revised down by 60k. He see the report as mixed but consistent with its base case and reducing pressure for an October Fed hike.
EUR/USD rebounds to around 1.1260 on Friday, gaining 0.16% on the day at the time of writing, after hitting an intraday low of 1.1221 earlier in the day.
Standard Chartered Global Research team discusses Euro area monetary policy, noting that core inflation has only edged up slightly since January and that higher yields pose downside risks to both growth and inflation. The authors judge that these factors reduce the chances of an October rate hike and expect the Governing Council to wait for new macroeconomic projections at the December policy meeting.
The Euro (EUR) reverses previous daily gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, diving to fresh two-and-a-half-month lows just above 0.8500, and is set to show a more than 1% weekly decline.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is 0.17% higher at around 0.6640 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar rises despite experts doubting about more Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hikes.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is emerging as a safe haven amid the global government bonds sell-off, showing a surprising comeback against an otherwise firm US Dollar (USD) this week, as Switzerland's sound fiscal position stands out with government debt escalating amid the world's leading economies.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD has slightly recovered after hitting fresh cyclical lows, with support at 1.1200 and 1.1111.
The Euro (EUR) trades lower against its major currency peers due to mounting fiscal worries in France. In the European trade, the major currency is down 0.35% at around 177.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad warns France’s budget crisis is deepening and complicating Eurozone fiscal dynamics. A minority government’s deficit-reduction plan faces parliamentary hurdles, while the fiscal watchdog calls assumptions optimistic.
Nordea’s Global Macro team of Tuuli Koivu, Jan von Gerich and Anders Svendsen note Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, driven mainly by energy and food.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the recent US Dollar rally and bond selloff have stalled as FOMC officials temper expectations for an October rate hike.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that rising rates volatility is driving a broader unwind of EM FX carry trades, with LatAm currencies under particular pressure. USD/MXN has surged and MXN long leveraged positions are being squeezed as implied volatility jumps.
The Euro (EUR) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the mid-1.1200s, still close to the 16-month low of 1.1210 hit on Thursday.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.24 per troy ounce, up 0.43% from the $60.98 it cost on Thursday.
ING’s Chris Turner argues that the French debt sell-off has broken the narrative of ever-higher short-term rates and raised doubts about further European Central Bank (ECB) tightening.
Eurozone’s preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for September arrives at 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), higher than 3.6% estimates and August’s final reading reading of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace of 0.6% against the prior release of 0.4%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 29K in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This print followed the 133K increase recorded in August (revised from 162K) and missed the market expectation of 90K by a wide margin.
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies below the $4,200 mark during the first half of the European session on Friday as traders keenly await the release of US employment details.
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