On February 18, 2026, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will unveil its latest monetary policy meeting decision, and so far, money markets had priced in a 99% chance to hold the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool.
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes that the Malaysian Ringgit is Asia’s best performer this year, supported by robust growth, FDI into data centres and tech supply chains, and firm exports.
Silver price retreats during the North American session nearly 1%, after reaching a daily high of $78.20.
Major currency pairs traded little changed on Monday as stock and bond markets in the United States (US) remained closed due to the Presidents' Day holiday.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/SGD is trading in a subdued range near recent lows, with softer US CPI and labour data keeping Fed cut expectations intact and weighing on the Dollar.
Gold price dives nearly 1% on a thin liquidity trading session on Monday as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day, while China’s new year celebration will keep the markets closed for over a week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,992 after reaching a daily high of $5,054.
BNY forecasts that Philippines's central bank Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% (Feb 19), continuing its easing cycle as growth risks dominate.
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Colombia’s Council of State has suspended the government’s 23% minimum‑wage increase, forcing President Petro’s administration to issue a new, economically justified decree within eight days.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as a firmer Greenback keeps the Aussie on the defensive. At the time of writing, AUD/USD hovers around 0.7072, easing from three-year highs near 0.7147 touched late last week.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that China’s Q4 2025 current account surplus hit a record USD 242 billion, or 4.9% of GDP, reinforcing the view that the Yuan remains tightly managed.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $76.50 at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day, with Silver starting the week on a weaker footing after failing to extend its recent rebound.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that UK rate markets now price another Bank of England cut as early as next month after a dovish MPC update. Governor Bailey and MPC member Mann have signalled openness to easing, contingent on data.
A Reuters poll conducted on February 10-16 revealed that economists are eyeing a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its next meeting in March.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats during the North American session on Monday amid thin liquidity conditions as US markets remain closed in observance of the President’s Day. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3635, down 0.12%.
The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, as the Yen comes under pressure following softer-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Japan. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 181.76, up nearly 0.20% on the day.
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Brazil remains a leading destination for equity portfolio flows in 2026, helped by attractive valuations after the 2022–24 compression.
DBS Group Research Chief Economist Taimur Baig, highlights signs of slowing US consumption after strong 2025 growth. He notes softer retail sales momentum in 4Q25 and a downgrade in real-time GDP estimates.
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a subdued note, extending its consolidation phase as traders remain reluctant to chase prices higher amid mixed macro signals. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,987, after marking an intraday high around $5,054, down roughly 0.90% on the day.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with USD/CAD extending its advance for a fourth consecutive day as the Greenback steadies following its recent weakness. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3628.
NZD/USD trades around 0.6040 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision due on Wednesday.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that despite renewed de-dollarisation headlines and AI-related equity volatility, the Dollar remains primarily driven by US macro data and Federal Reserve expectations.
ING’s commodities team notes that talk of a partial rollback of US aluminium tariffs is unlikely to materially change market conditions. They stress that the core 50% levy on primary Aluminium remains, leaving domestic capacity constraints and elevated Midwest premiums intact.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its first 2026 meeting (Feb 18), after signalling November’s cut was the last of the cycle.
National Bank Of Canada analysts Daren King and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s January CPI to be unchanged on the month, pulling headline inflation down to 2.3% and trimming CPI-trim slightly, while CPI-median stays at 2.5%.
The Euro (EUR) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday amid thin market conditions. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8689, remaining confined within its week-old trading range.
TD Securities analysts expect UK headline inflation to slow to 3.1% year-on-year in January, largely on base effects in food and energy, leaving core inflation at 3.2%. They see the unemployment rate steady at 5.1% with stabilising employment.
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem describe how Winter storm Fern briefly pushed US gas futures above $7/MMBtu before prices fell below $3/MMBtu as storage stayed near the ten‑year average.
ING’s Chief Economist Peter Vanden Houte notes that Eurozone industrial production declined in December but still showed annual growth, and argues that the cyclical recovery should continue.
The Euro (EUR) has resumed the last few days' bearish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and is retreating towards the 1.1850 level ahead of the US session opening.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Turkish Lira is rapidly approaching the bank’s 44.0 USD/TRY quarter‑end target as inflation expectations rise and external balances deteriorate.
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