West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil edges higher on Tuesday as fresh attacks near the Strait of Hormuz threaten the recovery in shipping seen in recent weeks following the interim US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $70.44, up about 2.65% on the day.
The Pound Sterling retreats against the US Dollar on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East rise, following reports of attacks on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3373, down 0.11%.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canada’s merchandise trade surplus increased to $4.2 billion in May from $3.4 billion in April, as exports grew and imports slipped.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is slightly softer versus the US Dollar (USD) but supported by a sharp recovery in yield spreads and stronger German industrial production.
AUD/USD declines toward 0.6940 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) loses momentum, while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lingering uncertainty over inflation.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, trading around $60.70 at the time of writing, down 2.21% on the day.
The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that Americans are growing worried about the high cost of living, as one-year inflation expectations rose from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June, the highest level since September 2023.
USD/CHF holds modest gains on Tuesday as traders balance softer US labor market data against hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, keeping the US Dollar (USD) range-bound. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.8066, remaining on the front foot for a second consecutive day.
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on 9 July and through year-end, with hikes ruled out and cuts seen as unlikely in the near term.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch highlights a rapid recovery in Gulf oil production and exports following the US–Iran agreement, with Brent moving into contango and Saudi Arabia slashing its OSP for Asian buyers.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the best-performing G10 currency on the day, though gains versus the US Dollar (USD) are marginal.
Gold (XAU/USD) stalls its recovery and trades on the back foot for a second consecutive day on Tuesday as a steady US Dollar (USD) and doubts over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path keep the upside in check.
BNY’s Geoff Yu cites European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta, who describes a fragile Euro area outlook with upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4205 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors balance encouraging Canadian economic data against a US Dollar (USD) that remains supported by monetary policy expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) trading near multi-decade lows around 161 per USD, even as long-end yield differentials move in Japan’s favour.
EUR/GBP trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as sellers take a breather following the recent selloff that pushed the cross to a more than one-year low. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8550 after rebounding from an intraday low of 0.8533, its lowest level since June 2025.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer against the US Dollar (USD) after encountering resistance near 1.3400, with limited fresh data and Bank of England (BoE) news.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said on Tuesday that the United States (US) economy continues to show steady, trend-like growth, while the labor market remains stable.
Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says Aluminium’s recent correction has likely run its course, with prices rebounding as Chinese and LME inventories fall sharply and Gulf smelter outages persist.
Geoff Yu notes Japan’s Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi rejected reports that the government is trying to push interest rates lower or pressure the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay argues that Crude Oil is far from oversupplied, with high-frequency global and Chinese balances still pointing to tightness.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) and trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.4158. They expect the recent deterioration in spreads to stabilize, easing downside pressure on the CAD.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes that the Q2 2026 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey showed resilient sales and investment expectations despite earlier Oil price shocks.
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak argue that reduced prospects of further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) should ease external pressure on the Zloty.
EUR/USD trades in a narrow range on Tuesday as traders await greater clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) and European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate paths. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1436, little changed on the day.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen (JPY) has firmed slightly, pulling USD/JPY back from 162.18 to 161.68, as comments from Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuichi attempt to calm fiscal worries.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold fell to USD 4,120 per ounce after fresh Iranian attacks lifted TTF gas and Oil prices, but Fed rate expectations remain unchanged.
National Bank of Canada ’s (NBC) Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note the Euro (EUR) fell toward 1.13 in June despite a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB), underscoring that EUR/USD remains driven by relative rates.
Private-sector hiring in the US has further cooled in late June. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 20K jobs per week in the four weeks ending June 20.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision as the key domestic event, with a first 25 bps hike to 2.50% expected.
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