Chris Turner at ING notes EUR/USD remains lacklustre despite better Eurozone data and upside surprises, as high European natural gas prices and Gulf tensions weigh on the Euro.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil reverses lower on Wednesday and trades around $81.60 at the time of writing, down 0.77% on the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes markets are steady ahead of the United States (US) July Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which is seen as pivotal for Fed funds expectations and the Dollar.
The Euro (EUR) is paring previous gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, weighed by a mild risk-off market mood as tensions in the Middle East grow.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD rebounded to close around 0.7062 after the RBA left its cash rate at 4.35%. Intraday, they see scope for the Australian Dollar to edge higher, though a sustained break above 0.7075 is unlikely.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Canadian Dollar has recovered to its strongest level in two months, with USD/CAD mean‑reverting to 1.3933 from 1.4248.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.56 per troy ounce, up 3.06% from the $64.58 it cost on Tuesday.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) stayed mixed as markets waited for the key United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with Middle East tensions and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric offsetting each other.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that Brent and WTI firmed as markets reassessed prospects for a Hormuz deal, with the previous close at USD88.91 for Brent and USD83.20 for WTI.
EUR/CAD remains steady after five days of losses, trading around 1.6070 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross moves little as the Euro (EUR) holds ground following the release of Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data.
The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidation around the 1.3500 psychological mark through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of important macro data from the US and the UK.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley outlines a cautious stance on UK fiscal prospects and their impact on EUR/GBP. The Burnham government’s planned flexibility in fiscal rules and higher infrastructure spending could mean more gilt supply and tax speculation.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe USD/JPY consolidating near 159.25 after Monday’s sharp rise, with intraday trade expected between 158.95 and 159.60. While momentum is strong, deeply overbought conditions limit upside beyond 159.60.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is down against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Wednesday. As of writing, USD/CHF trades 0.17% higher at around 0.8125.
Silver (XAG/USD) has returned to levels a few cents above $66.00 on Wednesday’s European session after finding support at the $64.20 area on Tuesday.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that USD/MXN failed to clear its 200‑day moving average, keeping downside momentum intact. The pair is attempting to break the lower end of a multi‑month range, with resistance at 17.17 and projected downside objectives at 16.65 and 16.50/16.25.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retains a positive bias for the third straight day on Wednesday, though it lacks bullish conviction.
Dow Jones futures are steady around 53,890 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures gain by 0.18% to trade around 7,760 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.48%, trading near 29,770.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a small decline in consumer inflation and core inflation.
ING’s Chris Turner reports the Brazilian Real (BRL) underperformed in an otherwise supportive carry environment after a bank downgraded Brazilian equities and a new poll showed President Lula widening his lead ahead of October elections.
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to edge up to 4.4% year-on-year from 4.3%. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is largely under control, supporting expectations for rates to stay on hold near term.
USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 17,920 during the European hours on Wednesday. The pair is advancing as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure from weak domestic economic fundamentals and subdued market sentiment.
DBS Group Research Strategist Chang Wei Liang highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains undervalued but that this undervaluation has narrowed after Japan’s second FX intervention of 2026, conducted jointly with the United States (US).
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR), Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Thai Baht (THB) weakened as Oil’s rebound renewed pressure on net importers.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) ticks down from two-month highs as the US Dollar (USD) firms up across the board, with investors bracing for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades cautiously against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY edging up to near 159.36.
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% in June but signaled a higher chance of another hike, with the year-end rate forecast just over 4.5%.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky highlights easing Romanian inflation driven mainly by base effects, with the National Bank of Romania unlikely to cut rates before early 2027.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the former continues to face pressure due to surging oil prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bid tone above the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session and remains close to the highest level since June 5, touched on Tuesday.
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