The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Minutes of the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The Minutes should shed more light on the Fed’s hawkish hold delivered at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4190 at the time of writing on Wednesday, down 0.10% on the day, as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from a sharp rebound in Oil prices fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele notes that the Euro’s relationship with energy prices has evolved, with recent Oil and Gas gains again weighing on EUR/USD.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) posts modest gains during the North American session on Wednesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump's said the deal with Iran was “over” after both countries exchanged attacks over the last couple of days.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates modest gains on Wednesday as traders assess renewed tensions between the United States and Iran and the potential economic fallout.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is underperforming G10 peers and threatening fresh multi-decade lows as USD/JPY trades at levels last seen in 1986.
ING’s Francesco Pesole reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates to 2.50%, delivering a more hawkish message than expected and signalling further tightening is likely.
AUD/USD trades under pressure near 0.6920 on Wednesday, following the US Dollar (USD) holding firm amid geopolitical risk and caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses UK political dynamics, noting Burnham’s likely unchallenged path to becoming Prime Minister on July 20 and his popularity within Labour.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer but supported by a sharp repricing of Bank of England (BoE) tightening.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that recent equity jitters and firm Oil prices have underlined the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, while markets look to the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
Gold (XAU/USD) sees a sharp move lower on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire deal with Iran was “over” during the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey. However, Reuters later reported that Trump did not repeat those remarks, citing a source familiar with the talks.
Societe Generale strategist Kunal Kundu expects India’s June 2026 headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to print around 4.1% year-on-year, slightly above May’s 3.9% but still within the RBI’s tolerance band.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday and trades around $58.45 at the time of writing. The white metal remains under pressure after comments from US President Donald Trump revived concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, supporting the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.
EUR/USD treads water above the 1.1400 mark on Wednesday, steadying after coming under selling pressure as traders assess renewed US-Iran tensions after both sides exchanged fire overnight following attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.
Rabobank strategists Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz note that despite Moody’s downgrade of Mexico to Baa3, 10-year MBono yields have fallen and markets remain relaxed about Mexico’s investment-grade status.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating around the low 1.14s, with mixed G10 performance as markets reassess Oil’s impact on Euro area terms of trade and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path.
Standard Chartered analysis by Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad discusses Andy Burnham’s stance against an early UK general election if he becomes prime minister.
United States (US) President Donald Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Iran on Wednesday on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit, according to comments cited by Reuters.
BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50% to steer inflation back to 2%. The committee still sees further removal of stimulus as likely, though data will guide decisions.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has held up well through recent Iran-driven volatility, extending its rebound even as the US Dollar (USD) trades mixed.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee reports that the New York Fed’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1-year inflation expectations rising to 3.7%, with 3-year expectations at 3.3% and 5-year unchanged at 3%.
National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) strategist Alexandra Ducharme reports Canada’s merchandise trade surplus hit a four-year high in May as exports reached a record C$77.1 billion. Gains were driven by metal ores and non-metallic minerals, while energy exports declined.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $73.10 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 1.48% on the day, as investors reassess risks to global energy supply following a renewed deterioration in geopolitical conditions across the Middle East.
USD/JPY edges higher on Wednesday as renewed escalation in the Middle East boosts demand for the US Dollar (USD) and lifts Oil prices, weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 162.50, close to 40-year highs.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the British Pound (GBP) has been a strong G10 performer this year, supported by sticky United Kingdom (UK) inflation, Bank of England (BoE) rate expectations and inbound M&A flows.
Francesco Pesole at ING discusses Euro resilience despite French political developments, including Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid and expectations of an RN win.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 bps hike to 2.50%, largely priced in, triggering an New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rally before gains were trimmed by Middle East tensions.
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that interest rate differentials are again driving the Dollar, with USD reacting strongly to weaker US data as markets reassess new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights growing fragility in global markets as President Trump declares the Iran ceasefire over and U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz reignite Oil volatility.
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