The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holiday and continue to digest weaker US labor market data.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH has seen a slight pickup in downward momentum, but still expects the pair to remain range-bound. The bank now looks for a lower intraday band around 6.7820–6.7940, while its 1–3 week view stays neutral, with USD/CNH likely to trade between 6.7750 and 6.8080.
The Kiwi Dollar clears the 0.5700 figure on Friday, clings to gains of over 0.22% against the Greenback after hitting a daily low of 0.5689. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5709.
Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs.
Societe Generale notes that stronger-than-expected China PMI data suggest slow but steady growth, reducing urgency for the PBoC to ease policy. The bank highlights that USD/CNY has fallen back below its 50-day moving average as Yuan strength reflects robust exports supported by the global AI boom.
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains on Friday amid thin trading due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after a sharp decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data.
Silver (XAG/USD) prices reclaim the $60.00 mark for the second straight day on Friday, extending their weekly gains to over 5.50% and trading at $62.42 amid broader US Dollar weakness, pushing the white metal to an eight-day high of $62.89.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises by more than 1% on Friday as investors digest a softer-than-expected US jobs report, trimming hawkish bets despite higher inflation. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,174, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,121.
ABN AMRO’s Bill Diviney expects the US Dollar to weaken broadly but notes slightly less upside for EUR/USD after revising the bank’s ECB outlook and incorporating French and US election risks.
USD/CHF heads for its first weekly loss in five weeks as weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Thursday weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The pair rebounds on Friday as the Greenback stabilizes, with traders reassessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook.
Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke reports that the Copper market is focused on a potential 15% US import tariff on refined Copper, which could temporarily boost US demand and prices if implemented in 2027.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD’s sharp drop toward 1.2900 looks overdone, but the pair may still test support near 1.2890 in the near term before stabilising.
The British Pound (GBP) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but it is poised to end the week with gains of over 1% as investors turn skeptical that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates at its September meeting.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $68.65 at the time of writing on Friday, up 0.30% on the day, recovering part of its recent losses as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following softer-than-expected US employment data.
EUR/USD holds onto modest gains on Friday but struggles to extend its advance as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following Thursday's weaker-than-expected US jobs report. Market activity remains subdued as US financial markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.
Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu explains that the Reserve Bank of India’s revised Standardised Approach for credit-risk capital will tie regulatory risk weights to both borrower ratings and each agency’s historical default performance from April 2027.
The AUD/USD pair climbs near the 0.6940 level on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data released on Thursday.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Nathan Janzen assess the implications of the U.S. decision not to extend CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) on July 1st.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5710 at the time of writing on Friday, up 0.21% on the day, supported by improved risk sentiment and a weaker US Dollar (USD) following a softer-than-expected US employment report.
Commerzbank’s Commodity Research team, led by Norman Liebke and colleagues, notes that Oil prices have fallen as optimism grows over US–Iran talks and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ABN AMRO’s Georgette Boele warns that USD/JPY trading near multi-decade highs has heightened the risk of intervention in the Japanese Yen (JPY). She notes markets are long Dollars and extremely short Yen, leaving room for a sharp reversal if sentiment shifts.
USD/JPY rebounds on Friday after falling nearly 0.90% the previous day, amid speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the foreign exchange market after the Japanese Yen slid to a 40-year low earlier this week.
Wells Fargo Economics expects Japan’s May labor cash earnings to confirm a sustained wage-price cycle, supporting Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalization.
TD Securities strategists highlight that the June United Kingdom (UK) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey shows one‑year inflation expectations easing while three‑year expectations stay near 3%.
Societe Generale economists Sam Cartwright, Michel Martinez and Jorge Garayo note that Euro area inflation has not yet shown indirect effects from the energy shock in food or goods prices.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes USD/JPY volatility and suggests an initial move lower may already have involved FX intervention. With US holidays thinning liquidity, he sees elevated risk of further Japanese action, consistent with past behaviour.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Friday as weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Thursday batters the US Dollar (USD) and cools expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Gold price has rebounded toward USD 4,200 per ounce after steep second-quarter losses, helped by weaker US labour data and reduced rate hike expectations.
USD/CAD trades higher on Friday, rising 0.13% to near 1.4200 at the time of writing. The pair remains supported as persistent weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outweighs the pressure on the US Dollar (USD) following softer-than-expected US labor market data.
EUR/GBP trades in a narrow range on Friday, with the Euro (EUR) modestly outperforming the British Pound (GBP) as sellers take a breather following a four-day decline that dragged the cross to a one-year low.
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