Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay notes Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope and stressing the move was smaller than April’s.
The US Dollar (USD) traded mostly unchanged on Monday as a temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran reduces demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded lower earlier in the session but moved closed to breakeven by the late American afternoon.
The EUR/JPY holds firm around 163.70 on Monday as the Japanese Yen strengthens, with investors cautious about opening fresh hawkish bets amid fears of intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Geoff Yu at BNY sees Latin American (LatAm) assets benefiting again from improved terms of trade for energy and soft commodity exporters, with strong real-rate anchors supporting currencies and duration.
The USD/CHF extends its advance for the sixth straight trading session, up 0.11%, as the Greenback holds firm against a basket of six currencies, the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8190, with buyers targeting 0.8200.
Gold price registers gains of 0.58% as Washington pauses attacks on Tehran, while US President Donald Trump opened the door for a resumption in negotiations. This, along with falling US Treasury yields, is a tailwind for Bullion prices with XAU/USD approaching $4,070.
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses part of its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap following a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer argues that high energy prices will continue to weigh on the German economy in the second half of 2026, limiting full-year growth to 0.6%.
EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Monday, surrendering earlier gains as investors remain cautious ahead of key Eurozone growth figures and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 52,200, up around 250 points, on Monday after a session that handed it the month's cleanest bullish catalyst and then took most of it back.
The Pound Sterling retreats by 0.13% even though the Greenback is flat during the day.
USD/CHF climbs to fresh highs since June 2025 on Monday after Bloomberg reported that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could keep its policy rate at zero until the end of 2027. The SNB later declined to comment on the report, according to Reuters.
USD/JPY edges lower on Monday and trades around 163.70 at the time of writing, down 0.09% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure from improving risk sentiment following the latest geopolitical developments.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay notes Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope and stressing the move was smaller than April’s.
AUD/USD retreats to 0.6990 on Monday, though still up on Friday's close, after briefly rising as high as 0.7011 during the Asian session as investors prepare for key Australian inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday, paring earlier losses as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap. The Greenback initially weakened as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment.
ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England to keep rates on hold on 30 July and sees a prolonged pause extending through 2026. New forecasts are likely to show UK inflation peaking near 3%, below the 4% level seen as risky.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil extends its decline on Monday, trading around $82.60 per barrel at the time of writing, down 7.4% on the day.
BNP Paribas strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 1% in 2026 from 1.3% in 2025, with renewed inflation pressures from the war in Iran pushing inflation to 3.2%.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity.
EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).
Societe Generale strategists argue July’s global fixed income selloff looks stretched, especially in Western Europe where 2-year and 10-year yields have risen about 30bp in four weeks.
DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chang Wei Liang argue that sticky United States (US) inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), but soft consumption, weak investment and fading labour market resilience justify a pause in Fed Funds rate hikes.
BNY’s Geoff Yu says softer June Consumer Price Index (CPI) has reduced immediate inflation concerns, but limited Fed guidance continues to support policy uncertainty and US Dollar (USD).
HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027.
BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day.
New orders for manufactured Durable Goods in the United States (US) rose by $1.1 billion, or 0.3%, to $334.8 billion in June, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday. This reading followed a 4% decline recorded in May and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 1.6%.
GBP/JPY edges lower on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) weakens across the board following its recent advance, with traders trimming exposure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.84, down 0.23% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows.
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