The AUD/USD pair trades in a muted range near 0.7030 on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to extend gains while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the latest United States (US) labor market data.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil declines to around $73.20 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 2.35% on the day, and hits its lowest level in more than three months as investors continue to price in the prospect of a lasting easing of tensions in the Middle East.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops on Thursday during the North American session as traders continue to digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, even though the Bank of England (BoE) held rates unchanged in a 7-2 vote.
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja reviews the latest Bank of England decision, noting Bank Rate was held at 3.75% as expected. He highlights a more divided MPC on paper but a stronger consensus for a prolonged hold.
The Euro (EUR) is caught between a hawkish but isolated ECB, weaker regional growth prospects, and a US Dollar that is recoupling with interest-rate differentials. BNY, Rabobank, and Societe Generale all flag headwinds for the single currency, though each emphasizes a different transmission channel.
The US Dollar (USD) has pushed higher, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing back above 100.00 in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy update under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
USD/JPY trades around 160.85 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day after reaching 160.95, its highest level since July 2024.
RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses the Bank of England’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7–2 split, noting that two members preferred a 25bp hike. The sharp fall in energy prices suggests inflation may peak below earlier projections.
National Bank of Canada (NBC) discusses USD/CAD, noting recent moves and the bank’s expectations for the pair. The report highlights key support and resistance levels and outlines scenarios under which USD/CAD could break out of its current range.
Nomura economists Josie Anderson, George Buckley, Andrzej Szczepaniak and David Seif note that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% in June but delivered hawkish guidance and a higher rate path.
The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance in order to contain the inflationary impact of the energy shock, even under a milder economic scenario, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane comments reported by Reuters.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 226K for the week ending June 13.
USD/CAD trades around 1.4130 on Thursday, up 0.21% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a positive tone following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision. The pair continues to hold above the 1.4100 level, supported by a reassessment of US interest rate expectations.
Nomura reports that the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0.00% in June and reiterated an increased willingness to intervene in FX markets if necessary to curb Swiss Franc strength.
The Euro (EUR) accelerated its recovery against a weaker British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, matching their expectations. He highlights a more divided MPC on paper but a stronger consensus to hold rates, citing improved data, lower wage and price inflation, and an Iran/US deal.
BNY’s Bob Savage observes that recent ECB hikes have found few followers among other European central banks, with the BoE, SNB, Norges Bank and Riksbank all on hold. Inflation concerns remain largely domestic, while markets continue to price downside growth risks in the Euro area.
The British Pound (GBP) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the GBP/USD pair hitting fresh two-month lows near 1.3200, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
Rabobank’s FX Strategy report argues the Euro played a significant role in last year’s strong EUR/USD rally, supported by Germany’s debt brake loosening and improved European growth expectations.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that the Dollar Index is closely tracking EUR/USD and highlights how President Trump’s policies weakened the Dollar relative to what economic and monetary fundamentals implied.
Brown Brothers Harriman notes Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% but delivered a hawkish hold by reinforcing guidance for another hike at an upcoming meeting.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it maintained the bank rate at 3.75% following the June policy meeting, as widely expected.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes describes EUR/USD as a near‑mirror of the Dollar Index, reflecting the Dollar’s past weakness under President Trump and its current recoupling with relative interest rates.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $68.10 on Thursday, up 1.05% on the day at the time of writing.
Brown Brothers Harriman reports the Swiss National Bank left its policy rate at 0.00% for a fourth meeting, characterizing the decision as a neutral hold.
Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes the Dollar has recently been supported by both safe haven demand and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The enthusiasm about the US-Iran peace deal has been short-lived for the Euro (EUR), which broke two-month lows at 1.1478 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Thursday, but remains close to weekly lows at $4,220.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5765 at the time of writing on Thursday, down a modest 0.07% on the day. The pair struggles to extend its rebound despite solid economic data from New Zealand, while the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw support from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) more hawkish stance.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $68.29 per troy ounce, up 1.34% from the $67.39 it cost on Wednesday.
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