The Pound Sterling steadies on Monday as speculation of a peace deal between the US and Iran fades, following weekend exchanges of fire that are a headwind for GBP/USD, which trades near 1.3445 at the time of writing.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5930 at the time of writing on Monday, down 1.00% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a risk-off market environment.
EUR/USD comes under renewed selling pressure on Monday as initial optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal fades amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1626, down nearly 0.30% on the day.
Halpenny highlights that the ECB is widely expected to hike at its 11 June meeting, with markets focused on forward guidance for the Euro.
The USD/JPY pair advances toward the 159.70 region, very close to intervention levels near 160.00, on Monday, as the United States Dollar (USD) strengthens following stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep market participants cautious
ING economist Adam Antoniak expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% at the 2 June meeting and beyond, as May CPI surprised to the downside and remains within the target band.
TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay argues that Oil fundamentals will tighten materially even if a comprehensive deal fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
BNP Paribas expects the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.4% and inflation overshooting at 3.8%. The bank sees the Fed Funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% as the FOMC adopts a two-sided outlook.
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week with a negative bias as slow progress toward a US-Iran ceasefire extension deal and fresh attacks in the Middle East keep buyers cautious. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,455 after hitting a two-week high near $4,595 on Friday.
USD/CHF edges higher on Monday as fading hopes for a near-term US-Iran peace deal underpin the US Dollar (USD) and keep the Swiss Franc (CHF) under pressure despite stronger-than-expected Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that the Japanese Yen will stay pressured in coming months as the Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, sustaining high Oil prices and hurting Japan’s trade balance.
Nordea notes that ECB officials, including Schnabel, Lane, Rehn and Stournaras, are increasingly signalling a June rate hike and possible further moves to safeguard credibility.
Business activity in the United States' (US) manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerating pace in May, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54 from 52.7 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 53.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep its policy rate at 5.25%, but warns of a potential hawkish surprise aimed at supporting the Rupee.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower around $74.60 per troy ounce on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.92% on the day.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has successfully dampened expectations for further tightening, with priced hikes falling sharply alongside lower Oil prices.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold has lagged the broader commodity basket, especially Oil and base metals, as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persist without a deal.
Iran's Tasnim News agency claimed on Monday that Iran's negotiating team is stopping message exchanges with the United States (US) through mediators in protest against attacks on Lebanon.
MUFG’s Teppei Ino notes USD/JPY is encountering strong topside resistance and potential intervention risks just below 160.
Societe Generale analysts note Brent has pulled back after forming a lower high and slipping under its 50-day moving average. They highlight nearby trend-line support around $91/90 and a deeper support zone near $86.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Eurozone May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to remain close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) baseline projections, with risks skewed slightly lower after softer German data. Markets have nearly fully priced a 25 bps hike to 2.25% on June 11.
TD Securities strategists note that recent US rate moves reflected shifting headlines on Iran and month-end flows, while upcoming US data will be crucial.
BNY’s Bob Savage flags softer Australian activity, with manufacturing PMI only marginally in expansion as new and export orders fall and cost pressures stay intense. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge dipped on fuel, while national home values were flat, with Sydney and Melbourne declining.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that the Polish Zloty has underperformed CE3 - Polish Złoty (PLN), Czech Koruna (CZK), and Hungarian Forint (HUF) - peers in 2026, with political risk overshadowing macro fundamentals.
The Euro (EUR) prints minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with momentum indicators pointing to fading bullish strength after rejection at the recent range top of 1.1660.
Societe Generale analysts underline that USD/JPY has rebounded after defending a multi-month ascending trend line and 200-day moving average near 155. The pair is edging toward the April high at 160.50/160.70, seen as crucial resistance.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that Sweden’s benign inflation and spare capacity support an extended Riksbank hold. While the central bank projects its policy rate at 1.75% until late 2026, swaps price a more aggressive tightening path.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley expects EUR/USD to stay largely range-bound near key moving averages as markets await clarity on a potential US-Iran deal and US data that could shift Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.13% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed safe-haven demand amid a worsening market sentiment backdrop.
BNY’s Bob Savage notes that the US Dollar (USD) is firmer, with US Dollar Index (DXY) slightly higher as bond yields rise and risk sentiment turns cautious.
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