United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains supported around 1.29 as the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) trades near the top of its band, implying the pair should hover close to this level.
The Pound Sterling advances some 0.14% on Monday as the US-Iran negotiations laid a “good foundation” according to US Vice President JD Vance, after ending the first round of talks in Switzerland.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that iFlow Carry has turned negatively significant for the first time in 2026, signalling ongoing unwinding of carry trades but also a potential contrarian opportunity.
The USD/JPY pair sank as low as 161.07 on Monday, retreating from highs near 161.90 as traders remain alert to possible Japanese intervention after the pair moved close to a four-decade high.
Nomura’s Dominic Bunning highlights that British Pound (GBP) has reacted calmly to Keir Starmer’s resignation, with investors focusing on the prospect of Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister and his choice of Chancellor.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $65.90 at the time of writing on Monday, up 1.69% on the day and snapping a three-day losing streak. The white metal is attracting renewed investor interest as markets assess the implications of diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran.
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme note that Canadian headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May, above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range, driven mainly by higher gasoline and food prices.
TD Securities, led by Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir, reports that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has shifted hawkishly and is expected to keep policy rates on hold through 2026 and 2027.
Deutsche Bank’s Shreyas Gopal notes that markets had largely anticipated Andy Burnham becoming UK Prime Minister by the Autumn Budget, leaving the risk premium in Sterling broadly unchanged.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday as traders react to signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations following the first round of direct talks held earlier in the day in Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar acting as mediators.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation rose to 3.2% year-over-year in May, mainly due to higher energy prices, airfares and food costs.
USD/CAD trades little changed on Monday after a brief bout of weakness following stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4165, hovering near its highest level since April 2025.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that crude Oil and petroleum product flows from the Middle East have rebounded sharply, but this surge is seen as temporary as trapped Gulf barrels clear.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that policymakers are not yet seeing signs that the latest inflation shock requires a more aggressive policy response, even as geopolitical tensions add fresh uncertainty to the Eurozone outlook.
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that UK political change is generating only modest Sterling (GBP) weakness, with EUR/GBP seen one to two percentage points higher and GBP/USD likely to test 1.30 this summer.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Teeuwe Mevissen notes that divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) is becoming more important for EUR/USD.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil declines sharply on Monday and trades around $74.50 at the time of writing, down 2.54% on the day.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that progress in U.S.–Iran talks and a ceasefire framework for Lebanon have helped Oil markets price a more durable de-escalation, supporting a broader risk-positive environment.
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects Fedspeak and developments around the Strait of Hormuz to be the key drivers for the Dollar this week, with front-end USD rates remaining central for DXY.
Canada’s inflation picked up pace in May, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.2% from a year earlier, above market expectations and up from the 2.8% increase recorded in April. On a monthly basis, prices rose 1.0%.
Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen notes that despite the US-Iran interim deal and lower Oil prices, the S&P 500 remains below its early-June record and credit spreads have widened.
Societe Generale strategists expect the central bank of Mexico, Banxico to hold rates at 6.50% on Thursday, with the statement potentially challenging market pricing for 80bp of tightening over 12 months.
The British Pound (GBP) is. showing the strongest performance among the major currencies on Monday, rallying 0.3% against the Japanese Yen, 0.14% against the Euro, and ticking up 0.05% against the Dollar after reversing previous losses.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Teeuwe Mevissen highlights that Oil and broader energy markets remain central to the global macro backdrop, tightly linked to Middle East tensions.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation and the likely appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister are largely priced into U.K. assets.
ING’s Francesco Pesole sees a decent risk that EUR/USD will need to test 1.140 as lingering post-Fed Dollar momentum plays out before any renewed upward pattern.
United States (US) Vice President (VP) JD Vance said during the European trading session on Monday that mechanisms have set up to keep the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, open, and stop hostilities in Lebanon.
TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise, with headline inflation projected at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, driven by higher energy prices and seasonal factors.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades lower against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday, ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
USD/JPY advances toward 161.70 on Monday, gaining around 0.25% at the time of writing, as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from both renewed risk aversion linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stronger expectations for tighter monetary policy in the United States (US).
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