The Mexican Peso (MXN) posted back-to-back bullish days as USD/MXN edges lower by about 0.34% on Monday amid softer-than-expected US data and a mediocre Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. The exotic pair trades at 18.08 after peaking near 18.26.
Standard Chartered’s Edward Lee expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to deliver another very slight tightening in October, raising the SGD NEER slope to 1.5% from 1.25% while keeping the band parameters unchanged.
Silver (XAG/USD) price drifts higher by over 1.14% on Monday, even as US Treasury yields rise and the Greenback extends its gains by 0.26%, as per the US Dollar Index (DXY). XAG/USD trades at $61.13, after bouncing off daily lows of $60.36.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang reports USD/CNH slipped to 6.7008 before closing at 6.7041, with intraday price action expected to stay between 6.7000 and 6.7105. For the coming 1–3 weeks, he continues to see the pair confined to a 6.6950–6.7270 range.
Gold (XAU/USD) prices drift lower on Monday as a strong US Dollar and high US Treasury yields undermine the precious metal, which has failed to rally as investors expect a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and have priced out a rate hike this month.
Traders have taken about one quarter-point hike out of their European Central Bank (ECB) forecasts since mid-September, betting the ECB will stop raising rates because of a French debt selloff.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the wide yield differential continues to favour the Greenback, while broader structural headwinds weigh on the Japanese currency. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 158.10, up 0.17% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) has picked up extra pace on Monday, reaching fresh tops on the back of persistent safe-haven demand, while fiscal concerns in Europe continued to weigh on the broader risk complex.
ING’s report by Coco Zhang and Ewa Manthey explains how the United States is enhancing domestic Rare earth production. Federal support now includes grants, loans, equity stakes, purchase agreements and price floors for key products like NdPr oxide and magnets.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) dives more than 0.19% against the US Dollar (USD) at the beginning of the week, despite a dip in US services sector activity and elevated US Treasury yields. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3218 at the time of writing.
EUR/CHF holds modest losses on Monday as growing fiscal concerns in France weigh on the Euro (EUR).
AUD/USD advances on Monday, trading around 0.6970 at the time of writing, up 0.34% on the day. The pair manages to gain ground despite persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD), which remains supported by elevated Treasury yields and weakness in the Euro (EUR).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports the Euro (EUR) is underperforming major currencies, with EUR/USD briefly hitting 1.1161, its lowest since May 2025. Elias Haddad flags France’s budget crisis spilling into wider Eurozone bond markets and complicating potential European Central Bank (ECB) Transmission Protection Instrument activation, leaving the Euro pressured by rising fiscal risk and expectations of a shallower ECB hiking cycle.
France's government owes close to 120% of what its economy produces in a year. The gap between what France and Germany pay to borrow for 10 years reached about 1.5 percentage points on Friday, the widest since 2011.
USD/CAD reverses its earlier gains on Monday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms its major peers, while the US Dollar (USD) consolidates after mixed US business activity data.
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes that USD/KRW declined on Friday and over the week as robust South Korean exports and supportive policy actions bolstered the Korean Won. Elevated but easing inflation allows the Bank of Korea to stay hawkish while likely holding rates in October.
Christopher Wong at OCBC expects the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) to see some near-term relief from softer United States (US) payrolls and a wider trade surplus, with policymakers emphasizing IDR stability.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2781 on Friday, with the SGD NEER staying well above its midpoint. For the intraday session, he expects the pair to hold within 1.2768–1.2832, aligning with technical levels at 1.2775/1.2815. On a 1–3 week and 1–3 month horizon, he still sees scope for a recovery toward 1.2835 while 1.2765 acts as strong support.
EUR/USD falls 0.60% on Monday and trades around 1.1190 at the time of writing. The pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) maintains positive momentum, supported in part by elevated US Treasury yields, while political and fiscal concerns in Europe weigh on the Euro (EUR).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar rallied broadly last week as DXY hit new cyclical highs alongside widening US-G6 rate differentials and a deepening global bond selloff.
USD/CHF edges higher on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak as the US Dollar (USD) climbs to a fresh year-to-date high.
Societe Generale strategists highlight renewed Euro (EUR) weakness as widening European spreads and US Dollar (USD) demand push EUR/USD below 1.12, far from the European Central Bank's (ECB) technical assumption of 1.16 for 2026-28.
NZD/USD extends its decline on Monday and trades around 0.5582 at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day. The pair is flirting with the November 2025 low at 0.5580 after posting six consecutive weeks of losses. NZD/USD is therefore trading close to an important area between 0.5580 and 0.5470.
HSBC strategists highlight that GBP/USD is under pressure as resilient United States (US) data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve and narrowing UK-US rate differentials weigh on the British Pound (GBP).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says the Brazilian Real (BRL) and local assets are poised to open higher after Flávio Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round election result.
EUR/GBP extends its decline on Monday, sliding to its lowest level since mid-July as political turmoil and mounting concerns over Europe’s public finances weigh on the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8478, down 0.24% on the day, after touching an intraday low of 0.8458.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that widening Eurozone bond spreads and fragmentation concerns are tightening financial conditions and putting renewed pressure on the Euro.
Societe Generale’s analysts use their Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Diesel price forecasts to derive forward-looking inflation surprises for the US and Eurozone.
Gold (XAU/USD) (XAU/USD) lacks clear directional momentum on Monday. A stronger US Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields cap the upside, while easing Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike bets cushion the downside. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,142, little changed on the day.
Fresh data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the Services PMI weakening to 54.9 in September from 55.4 in the previous month, coming in below previous estimates (55) and signalling a slight loss of momentum in the sector.
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