Tuesday's rise in GBP/USD came from the Dollar side. The pair was flat through Bank of England (BoE) external member Mann's warning on inflation, then gained at the same two points in the session as EUR/USD, leaving EUR/GBP close to unchanged.
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to edge lower intraday while staying confined to a narrow 6.7000–6.7100 band. Over the coming one to three weeks, they maintain a range-trading view between 6.6950 and 6.7270. On a one to three month basis, they see USD/CNH continuing to drift lower as long as it remains below the cloud resistance near 6.7815.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe USD/SGD consolidating near recent highs, with bullish daily momentum showing signs of fading and RSI near overbought.
Standard Chartered Bank economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25% in October, revising their previous call for a hold. They attribute the move to broader September inflation, higher Oil prices and Philippine Peso depreciation. The bank still anticipates easing from Q3-2027 once inflation returns to target.
The US Dollar (USD) has come under fresh downside pressure on Tuesday, slipping back toward of two-day lows as shrinking fiscal jitters in France appear to have lent some support to the broader risk-linked galaxy.
Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday that the labor market remains in a good place, and he remains concerned about the high cost of living, saying “inflation is frustrating, must be fixed.”
Silver (XAG/USD) holds firm on Tuesday, supported by a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the metal trades around $61.50, up 0.75% on the day.
San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly said she supported September’s rate hike and that additional rate hikes may be needed, depending on external shocks.
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank highlights China’s new anti-dumping probe into EU nitrotoluenes as likely linked to broader trade frictions. A Franco-German non-paper urges tougher EU action on dumping, subsidies and currency manipulation ahead of Trade Commissioner Sefcovic’s China trip. Failure to deliver concrete measures to address imbalances could trigger an EU-China trade war with significant currency implications.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rebounds on Tuesday as shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices supported despite improving Middle East exports, with US-Iran talks still deadlocked.
Brent fell below $98 a barrel as Gulf exports picked up, and bond yields in Europe and the US fell with it. France got the most relief, as the extra yield investors want for holding its 10-year debt over Germany's narrowed to about 1.3 percentage points from more than 1.5 on Friday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances about 0.40% on Tuesday as the Greenback retreats from multi-month highs, boosted by hawkish comments from a Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, while a widening US trade deficit weighed on the Greenback.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading flat against the US Dollar, with markets showing little reaction to Quebec’s provincial election.
AUD/USD gains 0.13% on Tuesday and trades around 0.6980 at the time of writing. The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as easing US Treasury yields provide support to the pair.
EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Tuesday, drawing support from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD). However, concerns over France’s fiscal position keep the Euro’s (EUR) gains in check. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1255, up 0.29% on the day.
Michael Wan at MUFG argues that Asian currencies have been more resilient than others, supported by strong AI-related exports and a less acute Oil and diesel supply situation in the region.
TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj with contributions from Howard Du and Linda Cheng, argues that recent EUR/USD weakness has been driven by high Oil and diesel prices and French OAT concerns.
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes Canada’s trade balance swung to a $4.2 billion surplus in August, helped by higher energy prices and a rush of exports to the United States (US) ahead of new tariffs.
USD/CAD falls 0.15% on Tuesday and trades around 1.4240 at the time of writing, pulling away slightly from recent highs near 1.4300. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) nevertheless remains vulnerable, weighed down by falling Oil prices as signs of improving global crude supply continue to emerge.
UOB’s Alvin Liew highlights that weaker US September Payrolls and softer wage growth have reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike, with markets now focused on September CPI.
TD Securities highlights a constructive Brazilian Real (BRL) backdrop, with diversified commodity exposure and strong carry. Their short-term fair value model places USD/BRL near 5.00 excluding political risk, but they favor the cross below 5.00 toward 4.60 longer-term.
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at the 7 October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. They see November as the earliest point for any change, with fresh projections available, and currently anticipate two 25bp rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027 as inflation risks persist.
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says markets see limited scope for another Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy move at the October meeting, with expectations instead centred on December.
USD/JPY holds firm on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades on the defensive across the board. However, a softer US Dollar (USD), weighed down by a pullback in US Treasury yields, and intervention concerns around the 160 level limit the upside, keeping the pair range-bound.
Societe Generale strategists note that Gold has extended its pullback after failing to hold above the 200-day moving average near $4,510–$4,540. Prices are drifting toward an interim projection around $4,095, with a break of this level seen opening downside toward $4,000 and the June/July troughs at $3,960–$3,940, which mark the lower boundary of a critical multi-month support range.
DBS Bank’s Radhika Rao notes that onshore financial markets are under pressure from global developments, with foreign portfolio investors pulling out around $6.3bn and USD/INR trading back above 96.00.
TD Securities notes the US economy and labor market are resilient but not overheating, leading them to push Fed rate hike calls to December 2026 and March 2027. They believe market pricing for Fed hawkishness has peaked and see it as hard to derive persistently bullish Dollar signals from Fed and data alone, even as their scorecard still ranks the USD highest.
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY lacks clear directional cues in the short term, with intraday price action expected to remain confined between 157.55 and 158.45. Over the next one to three weeks, they see the pair trading in a broader 156.35–158.70 range. On a one to three month horizon, they highlight building downward momentum and potential further USD/JPY weakness.
Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in early September. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 23.750K jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 19.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Tuesday as a pullback in US Treasury yields weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the metal recover after falling to a two-month low of $4,104 during Asian trading hours.
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